U.S. Stock Market - Record High, But NYSE Margin Debt Declines

The Dow Jones Industrial Average posted a new all-time closing high on Wednesday of last week (just barely), but the intra-day record high for the DJIA, as posted in early April, was never violated. Except for the New York Composite Index, no other major index saw record highs last week on either basis, intra-day or closing. In fact, the Russell 2000 Index is still about 7% below its record high as posted on March 4.

For the bearish camp, the recent rotation out of small-cap stocks into large-cap stocks has probably been frustrating. However, the really great bull markets almost always end with one last rotation into the so-called "blue chip" large-cap names. 

How are we to know when this dance is really done? I wish I could write that there was a magic formula and that I had it! Unfortunately, there is no magic formula, just a trail of bread crumbs that may show the way.

I've attached two charts here that may suggest that the music has already stopped. Weekly chart sell signals were triggered by my computer trading system at Friday's close in the blue chip drug giant Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and also in the Dow Jones Utility Average.

Johnson & Johnson Weekly Bar Chart with Computer-generated Buy & Sell Signals

Dow Jones Utility Average with Computer-generated Buy & Sell Signals

It may be worth noting that NYSE Margin Debt exploded in recent months to a record high $465.72 billion as reported at the end of February 2014. Equally important is the fact that Margin Debt had expanded for eight straight months between July 2013 and February 2014 before finally contracting in March (the latest reporting period) by $15.44 billion to $450.28 billion. Movements in NYSE Margin Debt as plotted against the S&P 500 Index show a 96% correlation coefficient. I believe it was the great Stan Weinstein (author of The Professional Tape Reader) who once said that expanding Margin Debt is bullish for stocks (even at record levels), while contracting Margin Debt is bearish. This first significant monthly downtick for Margin Debt in March (as reported by the NYSE last week) may actually represent another important clue that the bull market in U.S. stocks is over!

Also, a daily chart sell signal was triggered on Friday in the Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF, better known as the Dow Diamonds (symbol DIA). 

In the interest of full disclosure, I currently hold a significant position in the double-short S&P 500 ETF, symbol SDS, in one of my managed accounts.

Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DJIA Diamonds DIA) Daily Bar Chart

U.S. Stock Market - Is Another Flash Crash Possible?

Disclaimers usually come at the end in blogs like this one. However, given the title of this week's column, I think it's appropriate to let the reader know immediately and upfront that I have a substantial position in the double-short S&P 500 ETF (symbol SDS) in my largest managed account.

On the afternoon of May 6, 2010, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged approximately 600 points in about 5 minutes and was down almost 1,000 points (9%) intra-day before rebounding. There are dozens of theories about what happened that day and there were investigations by the SEC and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, among others. As more than a casual observer at that time, I saw many similarities between the Flash Crash of May 2010 and the Black Monday Crash of October 1987. One common denominator was the so-called "tail wagging the dog" phenomenon involving the S&P 500 futures contract. When the near-term S&P 500 futures contract trades at a significant discount to the cash S&P 500 Index, arbitrageurs sell component stocks and then buy the futures in an attempt to lock in profits. Both crashes were marked by massive selling in the S&P 500 futures contract at discount prices to the cash index which then triggered massive liquidation of underlying component stocks which then cascaded into even more selling of futures and even greater liquidation of underlying component shares. The downside spirals that resulted were unprecedented in both cases. The October 19th Crash of 1987 saw the largest single day percentage decline in the history of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, 508 points or 23%. The May 6th Flash Crash of 2010 saw the largest intra-day point decline in the history of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, 999 points or 9%.

Is a "Flash Crash" like the one that unfolded on May 6th, 2010 possible today? 

The answer is yes, of course. However, given the recent widespread negative publicity for high frequency traders (HFT's), the odds are probably low. If another flash crash unfolded right now, HFT's would surely be blamed and the regulators would change the game forever (against them). While that may happen anyway, for now they are less likely to be involved if intra-day volatility suddenly ramps up.

If not a flash crash, then how about an '87-type crash? From the top on August 25th, 1987 to the bottom on October 19th, 1987, the S&P 500 Index fell 36% in 55 days, with most of the loss sustained on October 19th, the last day of this decline. Again, I don't think an '87-type crash will unfold here. The Federal Reserve and other major central banks will almost certainly intervene on any meaningful correction.

So where does that leave us? 

Remember Long Term Capital Management? In 1998, this infamous hedge fund lost $4.6 billion in less than four months on leveraged bets gone sour in Russia. The damage was so bad that the Federal Reserve actually brokered a $3.6 billion bailout on fears that a LTCM failure might take the whole system down (i.e. a Lehman-type event risk). From the S&P 500 peak in July 1998 to the low in October 1998, the S&P 500 dropped 22%. The players look eerily similar today to those back in 1998. Hedge funds are reeling right now with losses on their long positions in the high-fliers year-to-date so far. Russia is more than saber-rattling in Ukraine, and the G-7 is about to ratchet up sanctions against Putin. The Federal Reserve is trying to reign in its monetary accommodation known affectionately as QE, historically high corporate profit margins right now look vulnerable to me, and margin debt for stock purchases is now at a record. And to add insult to injury, the next five months are seasonally the worst period of the year to own stocks!

Bottom line: A stock market correction of at least 20% is forecast right now, just like the one that took place in 1998, between July and October of that year.